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Avoid Supply Chain Dominos by Navigating the Disruption Du Jour

By Tom Behnke, Total Retail

It can feel, at times, like a game of dominos. When there’s a global supply chain disruption, like those we’ve been seeing in recent months on the Red Sea and the Panama Canal, e-commerce companies and, ultimately, consumers feel the downstream ripples.

For those working on the inside, it’s nothing new. There have been plenty of similar events in recent years. During the pandemic, which had its own challenges for supply chains, events like the running aground of the large container ship “Ever Given” in the Suez Canal provide one of the best examples of how one event can add “insult to injury.”

Another occurred not long after Ever Given — severe labor shortages at vital ports like the one in Long Beach started to inject another complication.

The period during the pandemic truly was a perfect storm for supply chains. It gave a real-world case study on how seemingly separate and, on their own, manageable snags can combine to upend supply chains from the plant all the way to the customer’s door and how difficult it can be to unwind once started.

Today the pandemic’s worst effects have passed and now, as the world becomes an increasingly complicated place to do business, we’re seeing yet again how an “isolated” problem in one corner of the world can have an effect on billions.

‘Floating’ Economy at Risk in Turbulent World

A staggering 90 percent of the world’s trade is transported by ship, so the effects can be quite dramatic whenever a “choke point” becomes congested or there’s some other interruption on the “high seas.” For consumers, sometimes it’s noticeable in the lack of inventory in a particular category. Almost always, there’s an added cost from the delay, which is absorbed by the merchant and often passed to the customer.

As global trade grows, more ships burn more fuel and pay their crews more to be out at sea longer. This alone brings increased costs, but add in disruptions such as we’re seeing in the Red Sea region and it means those increased costs are unavoidable.

On top of this is growing uncertainty about the future of trade on the “high seas,” a notion that has propelled maritime traders for centuries. Today, as seen in the Red Sea area, forcing carriers away from the Suez Canal and instead around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, terrorists are challenging free trade in their backyard and affecting consumers downstream.

Higher Costs Trickling Down

Last year saw relatively inexpensive ocean freight. Believing that pandemic volumes would carry into 2023, carriers bought bigger ships. As it turns out, this actually had the opposite effect. It resulted in too much supply, coupled with lower demand; the resulting cost of a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Long Beach stayed below $2,000.

As these latest snags throw yet more wrenches into the mix, container prices in the first month of 2024 doubled and in some cases even tripled. The world container index most recently had the price of a 40-foot container pushing $4,000.

The primary trade route between East Asia and North America has been especially challenged recently. As China prepared to shut down for the Lunar New Year, there was a rush to get products loaded and shipped. Then there’s the Red Sea. Some carrier traffic is being diverted through the Suez to avoid the Panama Canal, where drought has caused lower water levels. Others are going around the tip of Africa to avoid the threat of attacks and piracy. Suddenly a lot of vessels are taking more time to complete their cycles.

Be Supply Chain Aware 

As the world’s carriers work around disruptions, it’s important that any company working within the supply chain stays on top of it every minute of every day.

Visibility and Communication

Being in the know, understanding the situation and knowing how it may impact operations and product availability is key. Follow disruptions and understand their residual impact. If you can’t figure it out, reach out to your suppliers and ask questions. The more quickly action is taken the more effectively disruptions can be worked around.

Reimagine Warehouse Operations

Consider moving away from major distribution sites in metropolitan cities to several large hubs served by strategically located distribution centers. Having several major hubs within a two- to three-day delivery time of 95 percent of American households is the model that’s cost effective and service-oriented. This allows retailers to make up for lost time once delayed ships make it to port and product finally starts closing in on its final destination.

Find a Strong Partner

A third-party logistics (3PL) provider can be a strong solution for those with the resources. A true 3PL partner offers turnkey solutions and advice around warehousing, inventory efficiencies, SKU depth, and velocity, purchase planning, and other vital operations. Hire a 3PL with its finger on the pulse of the entire supply chain.

Technology is Your Friend

Technology is evolving all the time, and adapting to the latest warehouse management systems (WMS) technology is paramount. The upgrades can be daunting and pricey, but that shouldn’t deter any company working within the supply chain. A worthwhile WMS must help you grow your business and keep issues within your supply chain visible at all times.

If anything has been learned since 2020, it’s just how intricate our supply chains are and how one seemingly “unconcerning” issue in a faraway corner of the world can have a major impact down the chain on the other side of the globe, especially as additional disruptions arise.

No matter the supply chain sector we work in, being experts on the supply chain at any moment in time is critical in overcoming the hurdles that are thrown our way each and every day.

Tom Behnke is an advisor for Boxzooka, a cloud-based warehouse management software platform and fulfillment distribution center, and vice president of sales and marketing.

To see the original article, click here.

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Ecommerce Quandary, Fixing the Returns Problem

Ecommerce is a blessing and a curse in the world of retail. While it’s played a key role in the overall success of retail in recent decades, it’s also saddled the industry with a growing returns problem. For every percentage growth in sales, more items are returned by customers.

As the 2023 holiday season’s returns tallies become more clear, we’re reminded again of the importance of having a good plan in place to limit the negative financial impact that returns impose. Holiday returns for 2023 were expected to total about $148B, according to the National Retail Federation, NRF. That’s compared to $171B for the 2022 holiday season, $151B during the 2021 holiday season, $101B in 2020, and about  $100B for the 2019 holiday season.

Returns related to the holidays seem to be on the decline for the first time since the pandemic, which is good news, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Before COVID and the lockdowns completely shifted consumer buying habits in 2019, retail returns for the year stood around $309B, 8.1% of total retail sales. Returns hit their high watermark in 2022, more than doubling the 2019 number, at $816B or 16.5% of sales. 2023 saw the first decline in total returns in years, at $732B or 14.5% of total retail sales.

Despite that recent decline, the cost burden isn’t shrinking, leaving many retailers to find ways to reverse course.

The Pandemic Effect

Nearly four years ago to the day, the pandemic and the multiple lockdowns took their big swing and changed things forever. As terrible as it was, it was a boon for ecommerce. Lockdowns and distancing turned people away from bricks and mortar to ecommerce, the safest option for in-person shopping.

Prior to Covid, retail growth in 2019 stood around 3.5%, jumping to 7.6% the next year, then 14.4% in 2021, and back to 7% in 2022. Growth in 2023 was expected to drop again to somewhere between 4 and 6%.

The lasting effect of the pandemic on the retail universe is most reflected in ecommerce, as millions of consumers adopted online shopping. This created a very large new group of loyal ecommerce customers; they won’t be giving up this new-found ease of shopping any time soon, and they’ll keep the returns conundrum rolling for years to come.

Returns have always been a negative in ecommerce, the more we shop online, the more likely it is we’ll receive an item that doesn’t fit, or just doesn’t meet the “mark” since we couldn’t try it on or try it out. 

Tightening Returns Policies to Lessen the Blow

Returns are no longer a seasonal endeavor, with the biggest hit coming during the holiday season. Today, returns must be viewed as a year-round problem, answered with an “always-on” business strategy.

For every $1B in sales the average retailer lost $165M in returns in 2022, a figure that is ever-growing. During the pandemic, many eased returns policies. Then, as the emergency started to fade, retailers started looking for ways to recover some costs from returned items. The expense of accepting a returned item can be more than the resale potential of that item. Shipping costs also certainly eat up a major piece of that value. Then, add the cost of manpower to process those returns and other key actions within the returns pipeline; it should come as no surprise that retailers are looking at all avenues to right-size this problem.

About 58% of retailers moved to “returnless” or “keep it” models for their returns. Others have put fees into place to cover some of those costs. Some are offering store credit instead of refunds, while others are asking customers to bring returns back to the physical store instead.

All of this has to be done while keeping customer loyalty the overriding priority. Putting more strict policies into place has to be done in a way that doesn’t alienate customers. The good news is that, in the retail world, customer loyalty isn’t exclusive to a restrictive returns policy.

Maximize Returns Operations, Lower Costs

One thing above all others stands out as far as preserving the value of a returned item. Moving returned items through the system quickly and back into stock for resale is vital here. Retailers that treat returns with the same urgency as outbound orders will realize the benefits.

For so many, this can be difficult at best. That’s why having a great 3PL partner, one tasked to manage returned goods and managing the process in an expedited manner, is absolutely essential. Streamlining the process in a way that reduces transportation costs and accelerates the return-to-market cycle should be the ultimate goal.

This is where the expertise and experience of strong 3PLs like Boxzooka can make all the difference, getting rid of the hassle and decreasing the negative cost. But there are plenty of simple things any ecommerce company can do today:

  • Be prepared: Plan for the influx; being prepared is key to success, especially during the hefty returns season after the holidays. It’s never too early to plan and make sure the returns process is clear and efficient, which can include dedicated teams to handle returns, clear returns policies, and a streamlined system for processing returns. 
  • Pre-empt Returns: Provide tools and information that reduce the chance an item will be returned in the first place. Things like online “sizing” tools, customer feedback with reviews about sizing, sizing charts, and plenty of product imagery as well can reduce the chance a customer’s order won’t “meet the mark.”
  • Analyze the data: Understand the trends! Knowing why something is being returned in the first place can lead to discovery when data is analyzed in a way that identifies patterns and trends. This can allow retailers to take additional steps in a customized approach.
  • Communicate with customers: Today’s shoppers increasingly want transparency from retailers, especially during the returns process. Keeping them informed and knowing what to expect goes a long way in making up for fees or other policies meant to reduce cost burden.
  • Automate: Streamlining the returns process with the use of automation can be a major aid to staff. Simple tools like barcode scanners, RFID tech to track returns, automated messaging to keep customers in the loop, and tools to analyze data and trends, can be an ecommerce retailer’s best friend.
  • Find New Opportunities: Ecommerce companies should constantly evolve by finding new opportunities to improve the customer experience. Whether it’s new technology or a new concept, be in the know so you can leverage the latest and greatest!

Returns are, no doubt, a significant challenge, especially after the holidays. But, with the right approach that addresses this as a year-round problem, it can be a great opportunity. For ecommerce retailers that are prepared, are constantly looking for trends and new discoveries, communicating/updating customers inside the returns process, and automating where it makes sense, tackling the returns problem and ultimately reducing the cost burden is within reach.

Most importantly, focus on the relationship you’re building with your warehouse fulfillment center or 3PL. They really are your secret weapon!

It won’t be long before we’re in the midst of the ramp-up to the 2024 holiday season. The time to review your returns protocols, review the 2023 data/trends, and build a more efficient system for the next season is now!

By Tom Behnke

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What’s The Deal With “Black Friday?”

Shoppers in America christened the Friday after Thanksgiving as “Black Friday” long before the internet and eCommerce began to dominate the retail world. This year will be no different. However, the phenomenon is not a single-day experience – and it’s not just an American event. Here’s a quick look backward and forward on Black Friday and its impact on retail shopping in general and eCommerce specifically.  

Going way back to the 17th century (that’s 1600 to 1699), there was a saying referring to “Black Friday” as the “day on which an examination is held.” No kidding. Leave it to students to coin a new phrase with some slang. 

In 1869, according to the History Channel, Black Friday was used to describe the gold market crash on Friday, September 24. Obviously, neither of these historical references had anything to do with shopping. 

Post WWII in the 1950s, the day after Thanksgiving was becoming a big shopping day in the US, with people packing into stores for “deals” on Christmas presents. The police in Philadelphia started calling the day Black Friday because of all the chaos they had to deal with, shoppers crowding into stores and sometimes getting unruly. There is no reference to Eagles fans in this research, but the annual Army v Navy game the Saturday after Thanksgiving did contribute to some of the overcrowding.  

On a related note, some retailers described going from “being in the red” – accounting-wise – to “being in the black” with the surge in buying gifts. True enough that for years, many retailers have been banking on a good holiday shopping season to cover the leaner times throughout the year. This also has a more positive connotation for “black,” right?

The Black Friday shopping event was catching on, and along came the internet and the ecommerce retail bonanza. Since the turn of the century, eCommerce retail spending has risen continually with year-over-year increases in online revenues, while traditional brick-and-mortar retailers have seen modest growth at best. Naturally, online retailers began promoting “Black Friday Sales” events well ahead of the day. The months of November and December have become a powerful selling season for brands and retailers, and shoppers are well-prepared and trained to find bargains.  

In the early 2000s, the speed and reliability of internet connectivity was sketchy in many areas ( if you remember). A new phenomenon began when people started utilizing their faster connections at work to do their shopping, and, voila, Cyber Monday was born. Credit the NRF, National Retail Federation, for coining the term. And every year since then, the Monday following Thanksgiving sees a spike in revenue and online traffic. The dramatic increase in smartphones and mobile devices since 2008 has opened the door for “always on” retail promotions and access.  

The term “Cyber Five” hasn’t caught on as well – referring to the five days from Thanksgiving Thursday to Cyber Monday. Regardless, these web-based shopping trends continue to expand globally and have led to many more marketing techniques to entice shoppers. Christmas in July, Singles Day, Prime Day, and the like have created anticipation and a following on the same wavelength as Black Friday.   

Let’s hope that these trends are for the greater good of retailers, manufacturers, supply chain businesses, consumers, and the population in general… after all, it is the season for giving.  

Tom Behnke

Advisory Board Member

Boxzooka

Boxzooka is a quality-focused e-commerce fulfillment company with great technology, lean operating processes, happy clients, and vibrant culture. www.boxzooka.com